It rained news last week, lots of news, and when there is news, commentary follows.

AUDITS AWAY

Governor-elect Lolo is smart and correct to ask the federal government to help with an audit, as he prepares to take over.

If nothing else, such a request (and the actual audits) will tend to naturally suppress shenanigans that might otherwise take place.

Travel is not in and of itself a violation of any rule, and there will probably be plenty of travel in the next month. Hawaiian Air, which added two flights for the holidays, might need to add a few more for the last gasp of an outgoing administration.

The Governor (and five others) are returning from Taiwan (paid for by the Taiwanese), a trip that was close on the heels of his journey to Indonesia (also paid for by a foreign government, I believe). The Lt. Governor is back in Honolulu receiving medical care. The Manu’a boat malaga (six strong) is headed to the Big Easy (i.e., New Orleans).

Sorting out the worthwhile trips from the less-than-crucial trips would require more “transparency” than we usually get.

The governor-elect is right to ask Governor Togiola to hold off on further efforts towards purchasing a boat for Manu’a. Lolo’s Manu’a support is very strong and the Togiola’s record on maritime procurement is very weak (e.g., Marisco fiasco, Fosia fiasco). Now is a good time for Togiola to bow out gracefully, and turn the matter over to the incoming crew. It is wonderful that federal funds ($1 million) were secured for a new/used Manu’a vessel, but at this late date, the file should be turned over to the new administration without any further expenditure of funds and without any commitment that would tie the new administration’s hands.

SPEAKING OF TAIWAN

Who doesn’t love a gift? But you’ve got wonder why Taiwan and Indonesia are so interested in helping American Samoa. Indonesia wants to pay for a basketball court (of all things)! (Indonesia also wants to host students, send experts, and otherwise lend a helping hand to American Samoa).

Taiwan wants to provide scholarships for our students.

I hope somebody smarter than me is thinking about what underlies this unsought generosity on the part of countries that we don’t normally think of as being part of our circle of mutual-interest community.

TRANSITION TEAM

The Transition Team co-chairs have been announced, and the speculation about who will be handed the reins of power has begun.

The list is fascinating to government- and political-watchers, but instead of dissecting it in a rude and ignorant manner, I would just observe that the list should not be read as a preview of cabinet appointments. There will be limited correlation between the list and the nominations sent by Governor Lolo to the Fono for confirmation.

One appointment that raised eyebrows (and the public ire of at least one Lolo supporter) was Utu Abe Malae to look into ASPA’s status. Following the announcement, Utu told me he is not interested in returning to ASPA as Executive Director. He did not rule out taking a director’s job in American Samoa, but he made it clear that was only one of several options he was mulling during this break in his illustrious government career.

By now, everyone has noticed that all the candidates who endorsed Lolo have a prominent role in the Transition Team, and that is entirely appropriate. Those six men and women love American Samoa so much, and have so much to offer the territory, that they stood before the voters for many months and asked for their support.

It is only fitting that they should be asked to continue in their service to the people by helping with the transition. I only wish Save and Sandra were on the list.

Many of the closest Lolo-Lemanu lieutenants are not serving as Transition Team co-chairs. In at least a few cases, that is probably because they are getting ready to run the government after the Transition Teams finishes their work.

Either during this transition period or soon thereafter, the incoming administration is going to absorb body blows, as the extent of the challenges facing the territory becomes clearer.

It is safe to say that when Lolo and Lemanu assume office on January 3^rd, they will probably not find a sound and healthy government awaiting them. The first quarter of fiscal year 2013 will be over, but probably well over a quarter of the FY2013 funds will have been spent or committed.

And there will be revelations. We will learn about bank accounts that don’t have the money in them that we thought we did. About deals that were made that we didn’t know had been made. That sort of thing.

And we will hear an accounting of things we have already been told, but tried to forget: about the overruns in the Marisco project and the court order against ASG, about the overruns in the $20 million Retirement Fund expenditures, about the court-ordered debt we owe to pay off the Laufou Shopping Center lawsuit, about the money we owe to settle a Department of Labor overtime investigation, about the money ASG owes to ASPA, etc.

It won’t be a pretty picture.

And the announced departure of Bank of Hawaii will make the situation seem grimmer, or maybe it will merely reinforce how grim it really is.

The Bank has been interested in leaving American Samoa for several years, and their interest was probably heightened when ASG took them to court over and over in the past few months, in an effort to circumvent federal court orders.

When the population of our remote island territory dropped from 2000 to 2010, and when there are no very bright prospects on the horizon (besides the new Tri-Marine plant), it is to be expected that major players will be evaluating whether they want to continue devoting resources to American Samoa.

The answer for BOH was, “no.”

THE RIGHT TONE

I’m sure not everyone agrees, but Governor-elect Lolo has set the right tone and said the right things so far in a variety of contexts.

If you want to be part of the change a’ comin’, you better get busy fine-tuning your résumé. Don’t forget: the deadline is December 15 and if you miss the deadline, you won’t be serving in the Lolo/Lemanu cabinet.

ALL FOR SECOND CHANCES, BUT

Count me among those vehemently opposed to the hiring of the rapist to serve as a Kanana Fou janitor. Thanks, once again, to the indomitable Ipu Avegalio Lefiti, for expressing her umbrage.

There are many good men and women looking for work in American Samoa who are more deserving of this job opportunity, and there is every reason for the church to be extra cautious about exposing Kanana Fou visitors to a man with a troubled past.

Is there another side to this? Compassion, second chances—of course. But the circumstances don’t warrant the action taken (and defended) by the church.

ASCC ENGAGES IN CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENTS

I’m a fan of ASCC for a number of reasons, and one of them is that the college moves forward. It tackles its problems and resolves them. Other problems arise and they get tackled too.

The college has a long way to go to be top notch, but it keeps taking steps in that direction, and doesn’t seem to slide backwards along the way.

Congratulations to ASCC for implementing the online registration program (earlier this year) and then fixing the problems that arose when the program was first tried out (and proved to be as frustrating as the previous system).

ASPA HITS A HOME RUN

Congratulations to ASPA, which has tapped something incredibly powerful with its program to trade recyclable junk (or just junk) for credits against ASPA bills.

It is truly amazing and wonderful to see people carting the junk that afflicts and plagues our island to the Tafuna yard of ASPA.

This program seems to be doing more to clean up the island than 101 previous programs. I hope somebody is studying this PHENOMENON closely and learning some replicable take-away lessons from it.

For example, how can this same phenomena be transferred to addressing the stray dog problem (okay, I shouldn’t expect miracles. If we really wanted to get rid of stray dogs, Tim Jones would have gotten more than 189 votes).

A LESSON LEARNED OVER AND OVER AGAIN

Every four years, candidates learn again that they were over-optimistic in counting the number of people who will vote for them.

I think every candidate and high-level campaign manager was surprised that they didn’t receive more votes. Some were shocked and others were merely surprised. But they were all reminded of how easy it is to be misled by people’s assurances that they will vote for whichever candidate or candidate representative is standing in front of the wily Samoan voter.

I have never run for office, but I’ve spoken to many candidates and many campaign insiders, and they routinely report two things: 1) people will look you in the eye and tell you that they will vote for you, but they don’t, and 2) there are always more people who fit the #1 description than you think.

In other words, the candidates know that people “lie”, but they underestimate the number of lies told. This is true across the board. The lowliest candidate feels it, and the most successful candidate feels it.

Even the veteran candidate suffers from this phenomenon. The candidates are like Charlie Brown, thinking that this time Lucy is going to let him kick the football without pulling it back at the last minute. Sorry Charlie.

NCDs AND CCSs

I have saved the most important items for last.

Hats off to the Department of Health and the Department of Education.

DOH organized a Non-Communicable Disease (NCD) Summit this week, and DOE organized a Common Core Standards Awareness Conference.

The seamstresses on the island were busy making beautiful uniforms and the caterers were busy serving delicious food.

The participants were busy tackling the two biggest problems facing American Samoa (after, of course, the potholes are fixed and the roads improved): health and education.

Please don’t be bored. Don’t yawn and start reading the cartoons. This is important.

The NCD message was simple: we have a personal health crisis and it is killing us at a young age, and it will destroy our community’s ability to develop as it sucks all the financial resources from the increasingly unproductive community.

I can’t believe I just wrote such a boring summary. But there it is: we have too many people suffering from too many NCDs because they smoke, they drink, they don’t eat well, and they don’t get physical exercise.

Tackling this problem will take a personal and community effort. One speaker said if the Department of Health/Public Health and hospital do their job 100% as well as possible, it will resolve only 30% of the problem. To resolve the remainder of the problem will require all other parts of our society: government, schools, family, village, church, culture, business, non-profits, etc.

The good news is the work has begun in earnest. The bad news is that 33% of the deaths in American Samoa are of people 45-64 years of age, while in the USA, only 16% of deaths are in that age range. The bad news is that it will take many years to “fix” this problem in our society, but the good news is that changes you make today will make a noticeable improvement in your life within just a few weeks.

As for the Common Core Standards: It’s a long story, but here is the short version: American Samoa is adopting a new set of standards (goals) for what our kids should learn and when they should learn it. This new set of standards, the Common Core Standards, are very quickly becoming the standards all across the United States.

DOE is determined to challenge itself to educate our kids as well as kids in the rest of the USA, and they are also taking concrete steps to equip our teachers and schools with the knowledge, tools and resources they need to “take it up a notch”. Or two, or three, or four.

Because taking it up one notch will not be enough, American Samoa. We are going to have to take it up several notches if our kids are going to be able to serve as the foundation for a society that is prosperous, and prosperous enough to retains its culture as global waves of economic pressures wash over these Samoan islands.

The work being done on NCDs and CCSs is crucial to the near-term, mid-term and long-term prosperity of American Samoa, and that prosperity is the only way American Samoa is going to be able to retain a strong and healthy cultural identity.

NCDs and CCSs may be boring, but it is super-exciting for people who are concerned about the territory’s future. That’s all of us, right???

Lolo increased his vote margin over Faoa by almost 700 votes, when you compare the November 6 results with the November 20 results.

Where did he pick up this additional margin of victory?

Let’s look at the numbers in two ways.

First, let’s look at where Lolo got the most gain in sheer numbers.

Second, let’s look at where Lolo got the greatest gain as a percentage, even if the actual numbers aren’t that impressive.

For those of you who paid attention in school, the first method looks at the “absolute” gains Lolo made, and the second method looks at the “relative” gains Lolo made. The distinction is important and let’s use our first three examples to explain why.

Example one: a small polling place with big relative gains for Lolo, but small absolute gains, because the number of votes in that polling place just don’t add up to big numbers.

Example two: a big polling place with small relative gains for Lolo, but large absolute gains, because the large number of votes at stake mean that even a small percentage increase results in a big numerical increase in the margin of victory.

Example three is the campaign manager’s goal: a big polling place with big relative gains for Lolo that result in big numerical increases as well.

Example one: polling place Amaua (covering Amaua, Alega and Avaio). Lolo’s margin over Faoa increased in Amaua by 343% (from a winning margin of 7 in the general election to a winning margin of 31 in the run-off election). This was one of the greatest relative gains for Lolo in American Samoa. But it built Lolo’s lead over Faoa by only 24 votes, because Amaua is one of the smallest polling places in American Samoa (111 votes were cast in Amaua, including the author’s).

Example two: polling place Nu’uuli. Lolo actually lost in Nu’uuli on both November 6 and November 20. But on November 6 he lost by 133 votes and on November 20 he lost by only 24 votes. Therefore, relative to Faoa, he improved by 109 votes, which is the equivalent of an 84% gain. In other words, in percentage terms, Lolo only gained 84% in Nuuuli compared to 343% in Amaua, but the gain in Nu’uuli was much more important to his victory (a gain of 109 in Nu’uuli vs a gain of 24 in Amaua). This is because Nu’uuli has ten times as many voters as Amaua (1168 vs 111).

Example three: In Pago Pago, Lolo got everything: a big percentage increase in a big polling place resulting in a big increase in his margin of victory. His margin over Faoa climbed from a mere 33 votes (Nov. 6) to an overwhelming 119 votes two weeks later, or an increase of 261%. And because Pago Pago has so many voters (767 to be exact), Lolo increased his margin over Faoa by 86 votes.

Other areas where Lolo picked up significant support or one or both types include:

• Utulei/Gataivai (292% shift, resulting in a shift of 76 votes in Lolo’s margin of victory).

• Leone (84% shift, +82).

• Fagatogo (38% shift, +37).

• Ta’u voters residing on Tutuila (15%, shift, +34)

• Aunu’u (400% shift, +20)

• Alao (367% shift, +11)

• Aoloau/Aasu (333% shift, +10)

Not all polling places broke for Lolo. In 10 out of the 45 polling places, Lolo’s margin of victory shrunk from November 6 to November 20. The ten are listed below, along with the number of votes that shifted against Lolo’ victory margin. These are the villages where the Faoa campaign was able to increase their strength relative to Lolo in the two weeks run-off period.

Aoa (a 28-vote decrease in Lolo’s margin of victory)

Tafuna (-19)

Fitiuta (-22)

Lauli’i (-14)

Faleasao (-10)

Ta’u (-9)

Atu’u/Leloaloa (-7)

Malaeloa/Aitulagi (-6)

Vatia (-4)

Manu’a voters living on Tutuila (and to a lesser extent, Manu’a voters living on those islands) won the race for Lolo. Districts 1 (Ta’u) and 2 (Ofu and Olosega) provided Lolo with a 468 vote advantage over Faoa. Pago Pago’s vote (District 9) was icing on the cake for Lolo, increasing the vote advantage by 119 to 577. Matu’u/Faganeanea was the next strongest redoubt for Lolo, increasing his advantage by 73 votes, to 650.

For Faoa, his biggest advantages were in Malaeloa (where Faoa outpolled Lolo by 88 votes), Tafuna (74), Fagatogo (61), Masefau (45), Laulii (35), Nuuuli (24), Vaitogi (22) , and Pavaiai (22).

The voting results affirm, with a vengeance, the importance of family and village voting. There is wide variance between the results in villages that can only be explained by family and village voting.

In Lauli’i, for example, Faoa defeated Lolo 137 to 102. But in Fagaitua, the closest large village to the east, Lolo defeated Faoa 96 to 65. Tula and Alao are located next to one another on the far east, but Faoa easily beat Lolo in Tula, only to be soundly defeated by Lolo in Alao. Only family voting can explain these variances, and I lack the knowledge about family voting patterns to help readers gain insight into these matters.

For many people who wanted “change”, the change that they sought was the end (or at least the interruption) of Sunia family influence over the American Samoa Government.

For many people who wanted “change”, the change they sought was a clean break with the government they had been un-enjoying in the Togiola years, epitomized by the daily suffering of drivers forced to endure potholed roads, dysfunctional legislative relationship, rogue ASPA, problems at LBJ, and the entrenched imperious leadership and bureaucracy.

Governor Togiola Tulafono’s governance was not popular and Lt. Governor Faoa Sunia did not distance himself. In fact, in the early days of the campaign, he said things were fine in American Samoa, continuity was important, and he and Taufete’e were the best choice to maintain the satisfactory status quo (with some needed improvements of course).

Between unhappiness with the status quo and a desire to place the government in non-Sunia hands (especially amongst the people registered to vote in Manu’a), it would have been tough for Faoa to win. Being a “no-show” at the candidate forums didn’t help the Faoa/Taufete’e cause.

A well-run campaign by Lolo (largely planned and executed by seasoned local political operatives), along four other strong candidates reminding voters that changes are badly needed, sealed the deal.

I suspect the lack of a military veteran on the Faoa/Taufete’e ticket, combined with the presence of a respected Army and Marine veteran on the Lolo/Lemanu ticket, had a substantial impact on the race as well, and this impact was stregthened by the presence of so many other respected veterans on the other candidate teams, most of whom formally endorsed Lolo and Lemanu after November 6.

Lolo suffered his share of hiccups along the way, and his high-profile verbal trashing of the Samoa News for publishing a critical draft report on the 1602 program—a draft that was later finalized with almost all the same negative conclusions–was not an example of his leadership (and, one hopes, was an aberration that will not be repeated, given the candidate’s commitment to Transparency and Accountability).

But this was a year for change, and Lolo was the change candidate with the best pedigree and the best chance of winning, and so he did. Congratulations!

Malo lava and fa’afetai tele to all the candidates. We couldn’t have a democracy without you. We couldn’t take our community’s pulse without you. We couldn’t frame and have  national conversations without you. You are all winners, although only one candidate will be our governor the next four years.

On our TVs we learn about the negative campaigning that characterizes elections in the United States. What a relief that we are not subjected to that sordid business!

I was privileged to attend the final meeting of the Faoa/Taufete’e committee Tuesday evening at Fano’s guest fale. The hundreds of supporters were addressed by the candidates, Committee Chairman Lauvao Steve Haleck and other committee leaders. The speeches gave calm comfort and provided a dose of humor to ease the sad burden of the losers.

“The sun will rise tomorrow, and God has a plan for all of us,” Faoa counseled. He told Samoa News he was available to help the incoming team in areas where he has experience and expertise, such as the high risk situation with the Department of Education and Medicaid matters.

Fofo Sunia told the Samoa News that the people had chosen and he supports anything that will make American Samoa a better place.

The Faoa supporters were quiet and sad, but did not seem bitter or angry. Faoa said they were handling their loss with “faamatalii” (dignity/honor/grace) and he was grateful to his supporters for doing all they could and behaving well (unlike, he noted, the behavior of some losing camps in years gone by, when keeping the peace had not always been so easy).

Faoa, who has had health problems of late, said he is happy the campaign is over, but he is not happy that he lost. Now he will be retire, tend to his banana plantation; he said he and his family will not starve.

The candidate expressed his admiration for the way Lolo and Lemanu conducted themselves in the campaign. “They personally were gentlemen and never said anything offensive.”

Meanwhile, over at the Lolo gathering in Matu’u, the mood was the polar opposite. In addition to simple happiness and joy, there was full-on jubilation once the results from Leone and Nu’uuli came in at about 7:45 and eliminated any chance of a late surge by Faoa. Of course there were hugs and tears, but the hugs were especially long and strong, and many of the huggers rocked left and right as they clung to one another, feeling relief and release and closure as well as the thrilling knowledge of being winners following months and months of hard work (and, in many cases, years of frustration from being out of favor with the Togiola and Tauese administrations).

“The dynasty is over,” one friend said to me, referring to the Sunias, and he looked like he was about to cry out of sheer relief.

The scene at Faoa HQ was dominated by older chiefs who looked very much alike, one to the other.

By contrast, the Lolo camp looked like a coalition of young and old, villager and professional, male and female. There was a distinct group of what looked like the new educated class of Samoans, more credentialed with degrees and retired military decorations than with chiefly titles.

And when I say Samoans, I mean Samoans. Tim Jones was a prominent presence at the Lolo camp, dispensing and accepting celebratory hugs and handshakes, but he might have been the only palagi—indeed the only non-Samoan–at either camp. Samoans might dominate American Samoa less than in the past, before the entry of so many foreign nationals to the territory in the past 40 years, but they were absent from the political camps.

The Lolo supporters were ready to celebrate. If there had been a statute to topple, politely of course, I think they would have toppled it. They looked like people ready to dismantle something. Change is what they were promised and they are eager for inauguration day in January.

As I left Matu’u, a steady stream of vehicles were headed to the party, from the east and the west. It was time to party; party like it’s 2012.

Article II, Section 2 of the American Samoa Constitution states:

“Senators and representatives shall be reapportioned by law at intervals of not less than 5 years.”

The Constitution was written in 1966.  Its authors understood that the population of American Samoa would shift over time. Its authors understood that adjustments to the districts would need to be made over time, so that the district were roughly the same size as each other.

But the reapportionment has not taken place, and we now have districts that are of widely varying size.

That means some faipule represent a lot fewer constituents than other faipules, which means that when voting takes place, people who live in large districts are having their interests diluted by people living in small districts.

The population of American Samoa is 55,000 and there are 20 faipule, so each faipule should represent about 2,750 people.

But the population in District 10 (Maoputasi 4—Satala, Atu’u, Leloaloa) is only 1,100 people, while the population of District 15 (Tualauta) is 22,000 people, and includes a large and diverse assemblage of villages, including Tafuna, Petesa, Kokoland, Fagaima, Mesepa, Faleniu, Pavaiai, Vaitogi, and Mapusaga Fou.

If the House were properly apportioned, there would be 8 faipule to represent the 22,000 people living in Tualauta.

Instead, there are 2 faipule from Tualauta, and they are unable to properly advocate for the wide diversity and large number of residents in the district. Moreover, candidates for the Tualauta House seats must campaign every two years in ten sprawling villages and try to visit more than 4,000 households.

Whereas the District 4 faipule must only keep in touch with three small villages and less than 200 households.

Where would you rather campaign?

In 1966, Tualauta County had a population of about 3,000 people and represented about 12% of the territory, but today Tualauta has grown to 22,000 people, and now represents 40% of the territory’s population.

But even though Tualuata’s share of the territory’s population has grown 3.5 times, it has no more representation in the House today than it did back then.

That’s not what the drafters of the American Samoa Constitution intended. It’s time to redraw the district lines so that we have 20 districts and each one has approximately 5% of the territory’s population.

Hello voters!

You have to make up your mind about November 20.

Will you stay home, or go to the voting booth and fill in the circle for Lolo or Faoa?

If you stay home, you are letting someone else make the decision for you. Yuck. So I urge you to go the voting booth and make a choice.

Most of the 8,687 voters who chose Faoa or Lolo on November 6 will do so again on November 20. Good for you.

But there are 4,367 people who need to make a new decision. Many of these people are wondering which candidate to vote for.

Here are some issues to think about.

FONO RELATIONS

Governor Togiola’s relations with the Senate are so bad that it has become impossible to do most of the people’s business. The House seems unwilling to do much, whether it helps or hurts or is irrelevant to the Governor’s wishes.

American Samoa needs a legislature that is actively grappling with legislative and territorial priorities, and we need a more productive relationship between the governor (whomever that may be) and the Fono.

FEDERAL RELATIONS

American Samoa’s economy and government lives and dies by decisions made in Washington, D.C. The disunity between our local leaders costs us dearly. Our leaders have to privately agree to disagree on things that they can’t reach agreement on, and very publicly agree on everything else so that Congress and the Obama Administration will know that whe we speak, we speak with one voice on behalf of the good of the territory.

CORRUPTION

There is too much corruption around here and not enough law enforcement. We need an adminstration with a zero tolerance attitude that includes a competent and committed police department and Attorney General to put effective muscle behind the clean-up campaign.

ROADS

Duh. We need a major step up in minor and major maintenance and new construction. Duh.

EDUCATION

The realization is taking increasing hold in the territory that if our students are not better educated (LOTS better educated), it is very unlikely that we will enjoy a brighter future for our families and our territory.

MONEY MANAGEMENT

It is very likely that we will have to do more with less in American Samoa. The federal dollars are not going to flow into the territory in 2013-2017 like they did in 2009-2012. No more ARRA, no more FEMA (presuming we don’t experience a natural disaster), no more NEG. Those three federal programs have provided $360 million in the last three years, and those programs are over.

Not only are those “special” programs over, but the grants and other routine federal programs upon which we rely are likely to shrink as Obama and Congress grapple with the US deficit in the short term and the long term.

(One exception to this dismal outlook might be in the health area, due to Obamacare, which might turn out to be a big financial boost for our health care system.)

HEALTH CARE

Although we all agree on the need for improvements in Health Care, the solutions are going to be complicated, expensive, and take a long time.

Let’s start with “health”: until and unless American Samoa’s population gets healthier, we will find it very difficult or impossible to provide great health care to the ill. The current hoopla over NCD (lifestyle diseases) is not hoopla. Too many American Samoans are dying too early, because of obesity, hypertension (high blood pressure, high cholesterol, renal/kidney disease, heart disease, smoking, etc.

No health care system, and certainly not ours, can do a good job when the population is as unhealthy as ours is.

We have so many health care issues: cost, affordability, facilities, expertise, recruiting, etc. It is going to take a lot to sort through them all.

JOBS/ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

If American Samoa does not develop its economy, the rest of the items on this list are going to be swamped by the realization that the island is not a place where American Samoans can be born, live their lives and die.

Without jobs, people will leave. And the people left behind will work for the government that governs a backwater.

Building up the local economy will not be easy, but there are enough things that we know need to be done that we can start the process and hope that it will be enough to cause jobs to bloom in tourism, in fish processing, in fishing fleet support, in eCommerce, in agriculture, in fishing, and in other areas.

POPULATION TRENDS

We all enjoy the uncrowded roads, but it is a sign of an unhealthy community when it loses population. Manu’a has been losing population for decades, and now Tutuila has begun to lose population.

In 1993, LBJ recorded almost 2,000 births. Last year and the year before, LBJ recorded less than 1,300 births. It looks like the total for this year will be less than 1,200 births.

In 1993, when LBJ recorded almost 2,000 births, only 223 people in American Samoa died. Last year, when LBJ recorded almost 1,309 births, there were 285 deaths.

More of us are dying (and dying younger!) and fewer of us are giving birth.

IMMIGRATION and NATIONALITY

Last year, 52% of the mothers giving birth at LBJ were foreign nationals (mainly Samoans, but also Tongans, Asians, and Fijians). For decades, the majority of the mothers giving birth at LBJ have been foreign nationals. The children are American Samoans, even though their mothers are foreign nationals.

American Samoa, after decades of this trend: this is your future. Today’s young voters are people whose mother (and probably their father) were born elsewhere.  Every year this will be increasingly so.

And American Samoans, what’s up with you? If you are an American Samoan in your 20s or 30s, you are gone. You are living in the USA most likely, going to school, or serving in the military, or making a living.

Check out this statistic form the 2010 Census: there were 12,600 residents in American Samoa who were 10-19 years of age. In the next age group (20-29 years of age) the number dropped to 7,200. The number who are 25-29 years old drops even further, to 3,324.

That tells me that about 43% of the youth in the territory leave after they finish high school or college. This observation is validated by personal conversations with dozens of American Samoans, who all observe the same thing in their own families.

That is not a good harbinger for the territory’s future.

CULTURE

The Samoan culture is going to take a hit if American Samoa becomes a weaker, more dysfunctional, more corrupt, more foreign place. The culture will only have a chance of thriving if the territory thrives.